{"id":421610,"date":"2026-07-29T12:45:33","date_gmt":"2026-07-29T12:45:33","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/siit.co\/guestposts\/?p=421610"},"modified":"2026-07-29T12:46:15","modified_gmt":"2026-07-29T12:46:15","slug":"us-stock-bubble-vs-1929-analyst-warns-of-90-sp-500-crash-risk","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/siit.co\/guestposts\/us-stock-bubble-vs-1929-analyst-warns-of-90-sp-500-crash-risk\/","title":{"rendered":"US Stock Bubble vs. 1929: Analyst Warns of 90% S&P 500 Crash Risk"},"content":{"rendered":"

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A recent warning suggesting that the current US stock market bubble could eclipse the one preceding the 1929 crash has reignited intense debate over equity valuations, federal borrowing, and the role of precious metals during financial crises. Stemming from an interview with Goldmoney contributor Alasdair Macleod, the report outlines a potential 90% collapse in the S&P 500. However, this alarming figure represents an extreme tail-risk scenario rather than a consensus forecast, highlighting the need to distinguish measurable financial risks from pure speculation. This debate is equally crucial for digital-asset investors, as severe stress in traditional equities and government bonds often bleeds into <\/span>cryptocurrency markets<\/span><\/a> via forced liquidations, declining risk appetite, and a sudden flight to US-dollar liquidity.<\/span><\/p>\n

By monitoring <\/span>real-time crypto market data<\/span><\/a>, investors can better gauge whether traditional market weakness is triggering a broader risk-off event. The following analysis explores how today\u2019s stock valuations compare to 1929, whether mounting Treasury pressures could actually trigger an S&P 500 crash, and whether gold or silver serves as the ultimate safe haven.<\/span><\/p>\n

US Stock Bubble vs. 1929 What Today\u2019s Extreme Valuations Reveal<\/span><\/h2>\n

Comparisons between the current US stock market and the 1929 bubble have intensified as the S&P 500 trades at historically expensive valuation levels and relies heavily on a relatively small group of mega-cap companies. Several indicators suggest that investors are paying unusually high prices for expected corporate earnings, leaving the market more sensitive to weaker profits, elevated Treasury yields or slower economic growth. However, expensive valuations cannot provide a reliable timetable for a correction or independently prove that a future downturn will match the severity of the Great Depression-era collapse.<\/span><\/p>\n

Shiller CAPE Shows How Far US Stock Valuations Have Stretched<\/span><\/h3>\n

The Shiller cyclically adjusted price-to-earnings ratio, commonly known as the CAPE ratio, compares current stock prices with ten years of inflation-adjusted corporate earnings. Unlike a standard P\/E ratio based on one year of profits, CAPE smooths temporary earnings increases and declines caused by recessions, commodity cycles, tax changes or unusually strong periods of economic growth. This makes it useful for assessing whether the S&P 500 is expensive relative to its long-term earnings capacity. The current reading places US equities among the most highly valued periods in modern market history, supporting concerns that investors may be assuming continued profit growth, successful artificial-intelligence investment and relatively stable financial conditions.<\/span><\/p>\n

A high CAPE ratio generally suggests that future long-term returns may be lower because investors have already priced in a substantial amount of expected earnings growth. It can also make the market more sensitive to disappointing financial results because companies must deliver stronger profits to justify premium valuations. Nevertheless, CAPE should not be treated as a short-term market-timing tool. The ratio can remain elevated for several years when corporate earnings continue expanding, liquidity remains available or investors expect technological developments to improve future productivity.<\/span><\/p>\n

Important historical comparisons include:<\/b><\/p>\n