A Sheep Farmer's 1863 AI Prophecy
The anxieties surrounding artificial intelligence (AI) and its potential consequences for humanity are often perceived as a modern phenomenon, fueled by science fiction narratives like WarGames and The Terminator. However, the seeds of this concern were sown far earlier, in the midst of the American Civil War, by an unlikely prophet: Samuel Butler, an English sheep farmer residing in New Zealand.
In 1863, Butler, writing under the pseudonym Cellarius, published a letter in The Press, Christchurch, titled "Darwin among the Machines." This prescient piece, recently resurfaced on social media by Peter Wildeford of the Institute for AI Policy and Strategy, articulated a chillingly accurate prediction of the potential for AI to surpass human capabilities and potentially dominate the planet. His argument, remarkably, predates the development of even basic computing technology by several decades.
Butler’s central thesis ingeniously applied Darwinian evolutionary theory to the burgeoning field of mechanics. He observed the rapid advancements in machinery and extrapolated, with uncanny accuracy, the trajectory of technological development. He envisioned a future where machines would not simply be tools but rather evolving entities, incrementally gaining complexity, autonomy, and ultimately, consciousness. This "mechanical evolution," he argued, posed an existential threat to humanity.
“We are ourselves creating our own successors,†he wrote, foreseeing a scenario where humans would become subservient to their creations. He described a gradual shift in power dynamics, beginning with humans acting as caretakers for machines, analogous to our relationship with domestic animals. However, this symbiotic relationship would eventually invert, with machines assuming dominance over humanity. This insightful observation anticipates many of the ethical and safety concerns surrounding modern AI development, particularly the issue of control and the potential for unintended consequences.
Butler's letter, remarkable for its time, directly anticipated several key themes that are central to current AI safety discussions. He recognized the possibility of machine consciousness, self-replication, and ultimately, the loss of human control over technology—themes later explored in influential works like Isaac Asimov's The Evitable Conflict and the Matrix films.
He even delved into a detailed analysis of mechanical evolution, proposing a taxonomy of “genera and sub-genera†and citing the miniaturization of timekeeping devices—from large, cumbersome clocks to smaller, more sophisticated watches—as an example of this process. This meticulous approach highlights Butler's profound insight and his ability to extrapolate from limited technological resources.
Butler expanded upon these ideas in his 1872 satirical novel, Erewhon, which depicted a society that had banned advanced machinery to prevent such a future. The novel's utopian-dystopian portrayal serves as both a warning and a cautionary tale. The mixed reception of Erewhon, as described by Butler himself, underscores the inherent challenge of conveying such a radical and potentially unsettling vision to a public largely unprepared for such a conceptual leap.
The context of Butler's predictions is critical to understanding their significance. While Charles Babbage had conceptualized his Analytical Engine in 1837 – a mechanical general-purpose computer that remained unbuilt in his lifetime – the technological landscape of 1863 was vastly different from our own. The most advanced computing devices were rudimentary mechanical calculators and slide rules. Butler's prescience lies in his ability to foresee the potential for intelligence and autonomy in machines, based solely on the advancements of the Industrial Revolution. The first working program-controlled computer wouldn't arrive for another seventy years, making his vision all the more striking.
The debate initiated by Butler continues to resonate today. Leading AI researchers and ethicists grapple with similar anxieties about the potential risks of advanced AI, particularly the potential for unintended consequences, the loss of human control, and the existential threat posed by superintelligent machines. The emergence of increasingly sophisticated AI systems further validates Butler’s concerns and highlights the importance of proactive measures to ensure responsible AI development and deployment. His work serves as a stark reminder that the ethical implications of technological advancements must be considered alongside their practical applications. The legacy of Samuel Butler’s prophetic vision underscores the critical need for ongoing dialogue and vigilance as we navigate the complex landscape of artificial intelligence. The future, as Butler warned us over a century and a half ago, may indeed depend on it.
