What Has Biden’s Presidency Created?

Joe Biden's presidency has been marked by ambitious efforts to transform the U.S. economy and lead a clean energy revolution, aiming to invest at least $1.6 trillion into key sectors such as batteries, solar cells, computer chips, and clean water. His administration has made strides, including attracting foreign-owned factories to U.S. soil and gaining support for green energy initiatives even among some red-state Republicans. However, as the 2024 election draws near, much of this agenda remains unfinished, and Biden’s domestic legacy appears uncertain.

In POLITICO’s “Biden’s Billions” series, a closer look at his administration’s spending and tax policies shows both progress and challenges. Some significant achievements have been made, like a record surge in solar installations. However, the pace of progress has been slow, and there are gaps in meeting Biden’s broader climate targets. For instance, while solar power growth is impressive, the country still isn’t adding enough zero-carbon electricity to meet climate goals.some large-scale initiatives are still in the early stages or have faced significant delays.

A $42 billion broadband internet expansion, aimed at improving service across the country, has yet to connect any households. Similarly, a $7.5 billion effort to install electric vehicle chargers nationwide has resulted in only 47 stations being built so far, hampered by bureaucratic challenges and supply chain issues.With the 2024 election approaching and Donald Trump poised to take office, Biden’s economic and energy plans remain uncertain. The ambitious goals he set could have a lasting impact, but it remains to be seen if his administration's legacy will endure as originally envisioned.

As the 2024 election draws near, Republicans have expressed a strong intention to scrutinize and potentially roll back much of Biden’s spending, especially in sectors like clean energy, electric vehicles (EVs), and infrastructure. There are specific concerns about programs such as the financing allocated to the EV maker Rivian, and Republicans have suggested that tax credits for electric vehicles could be eliminated. This shift in political leadership could jeopardize key elements of Biden’s climate and clean energy agenda.

In total, Congress allocated $1.1 trillion for Biden's ambitious programs, with more than half of that amount—approximately $561 billion—yet to be fully obligated or available for spending, according to a POLITICO analysis of federal data. A significant portion of this funding is tied to tax credits and incentives aimed at encouraging clean energy and semiconductor manufacturing. These incentives have triggered substantial private-sector investments, including nearly $160 billion in announced clean energy manufacturing projects, projected to generate around 167,000 jobs across the country.

Additionally, Biden’s administration has seen an influx of investment in semiconductor and electronics manufacturing, totaling $446 billion in announcements since he took office. While these projects have the potential to reshape U.S. manufacturing and bolster economic growth, some remain in the planning stages, with the final decision on their development possibly contingent on the direction of future government policies.The fate of these programs could be heavily influenced by the upcoming election and the potential influence of Trump and his allies in Congress.

With Trump pushing for his own tax-cutting agenda, the outcome of these legislative decisions could determine whether the U.S. successfully capitalizes on this critical economic moment or falls behind other nations in the clean energy and tech sectors.Bob Keefe, executive director of the national clean energy business group E2, emphasized the historical significance of this moment, noting that the U.S. could either lead in the clean energy revolution or risk losing ground to other countries. The next few months will likely be pivotal in determining the trajectory of these initiatives and the future of U.S.

leadership in green technologies and manufacturing.Biden has acknowledged that his economic agenda is at a critical juncture, with the next few years playing a crucial role in determining whether his administration’s achievements will be expanded or reversed. Although Biden defends his record, some Republicans, including Wyoming Senator John Barrasso, have sharply criticized it, claiming that Biden's policies have undermined the economy without delivering significant environmental benefits.

At the heart of Biden’s energy, technology, and infrastructure legacy are four key pieces of legislation passed during the first two years of his presidency. These measures aim to rejuvenate the economy while addressing climate change. The American Rescue Plan, initially focused on pandemic relief, also allocated funds for infrastructure projects like broadband and public transportation. The Bipartisan Infrastructure Law invested in rebuilding infrastructure, expanding electric vehicle chargers, supporting battery manufacturing, and modernizing public transportation, while also addressing the replacement of lead pipes.

The CHIPS and Science Act targeted the revival of the U.S. semiconductor industry, providing substantial funding for chipmakers and related technological advancements. Finally, the Inflation Reduction Act, a landmark climate law, directed billions into clean energy projects, providing tax credits for renewable power plants, electric vehicles, and energy-efficient factories, while also incentivizing companies to buy American and hire union workers. The law also set aside significant funds for climate and energy grants.

Together, these measures amount to more than $1.6 trillion in spending and tax breaks, surpassing the inflation-adjusted cost of FDR’s New Deal programs. However, with the upcoming election and the potential shift in leadership, the future of these initiatives is uncertain, and there is a growing concern that changes could undermine the progress made under Biden’s administration.Biden's approach to domestic policy represented a blend of progressive priorities with blue-collar concerns.

He sought to combat climate change and address longstanding social and economic inequalities while also focusing on rebuilding infrastructure and revitalizing American manufacturing. As John Podesta, a key climate adviser to the president, put it, Biden shifted the conversation from what the U.S. needed to shut down to what it needed to build, with an emphasis on investing in new infrastructure and ensuring that marginalized communities benefited from these investments.

The results of Biden’s agenda are becoming evident across the country. Major manufacturing plants are being built in places like Arizona, Ohio, and Texas, with companies like TSMC constructing some of the most advanced chip-making facilities in U.S. history. These factories, expected to start producing chips in the coming year, are a key component of Biden’s effort to rejuvenate the country’s manufacturing base.Another focus of Biden’s policies has been rectifying historical injustices.

For instance, his administration initiated a government-wide effort to ensure that communities burdened by pollution would benefit from the transition to cleaner energy. One example of this is a $7 billion project aimed at installing solar energy systems in low-income communities. These initiatives, while still in their early stages, are expected to solidify Biden's legacy in the long term, according to Tony Reames, a University of Michigan professor involved in Biden’s environmental justice efforts.

However, despite these developments, Biden’s climate and energy initiatives struggled to resonate with voters in key swing states during the election. Voters in Pennsylvania and Nevada, where clean energy projects were underway, indicated that climate and energy policies were not their top concerns. As the election neared, fewer than 30% of voters felt that Biden’s major legislative achievements had improved their lives or communities. Vice President Kamala Harris, campaigning on issues like the cost of living and reproductive rights, did not highlight Biden’s climate and energy spending, focusing instead on issues more pressing to voters at that moment.

As the Biden administration approaches its final weeks in office, officials have announced that 98% of the available funds for the administration's major energy, tech, and infrastructure programs have been awarded. However, much of this funding is still in the early stages of deployment. Most of it has not yet been "obligated"—a crucial step that legally protects the funds from being clawed back. Even fewer funds have actually been spent, with less than 28% of the total appropriations used as of fall 2023, according to a POLITICO review.

In addition, while the Biden administration has spurred $160 billion in private clean energy investments, nearly half of that remains in the planning stage. This slow pace of deployment is due in part to practical challenges, including a strained electric grid that struggles to support the influx of new power sources, as well as a slow federal permitting process that has not been streamlined despite bipartisan efforts to address it.These challenges have delayed the realization of Biden’s climate goals.

For example, the U.S. has cut its greenhouse gas emissions by 18% from 2005 levels, but Biden's target of a 50% reduction by 2030 remains out of reach. Despite these hurdles, many Democrats view Biden's presidency as a significant breakthrough in climate action, with Sen. Ed Markey calling him "the most important climate president in history."Republicans, however, argue that Biden’s policies have exacerbated government overreach, increased reliance on China, and raised energy costs for consumers.

However, many of the clean energy projects funded by Biden's initiatives are reaching red districts. Data from Atlas shows that 75% of announced clean energy investments are directed to these areas, illustrating the bipartisan impact of his agenda.Despite criticisms, Biden’s semiconductor initiatives appear more secure. The CHIPS Act has successfully signed contracts for 85% of its manufacturing subsidies, with Commerce Secretary Gina Raimondo pledging to commit almost all of the program's funds by Inauguration Day.

John Neuffer, president of the semiconductor industry’s main trade group, emphasized that continued incentives are crucial for America to maintain its competitive edge over China. He cautioned that without these incentives, the U.S. could regress in its semiconductor capabilities, which he described as essential for national competitiveness.As Donald Trump prepares for a potential return to the White House, he has made it clear that he intends to reverse significant portions of Biden’s economic and climate agenda.

Trump has emphasized a strategy focused on deregulation and trade enforcement to boost domestic manufacturing, rather than continuing Biden's green energy push. In his July convention speech, Trump pledged to redirect the funds allocated to Biden's projects for traditional infrastructure, such as roads, bridges, and dams, and vowed to block spending on what he called “meaningless Green New Scam ideas.”While Biden’s “Investing in America” agenda has already allocated substantial funds toward infrastructure projects like roads and bridges, Trump has criticized the Inflation Reduction Act (IRA) and the CHIPS Act, both key components of Biden’s agenda.

He has proposed rescinding unspent IRA funds and has repeatedly criticized Biden’s focus on electric vehicles and renewable energy sources like wind power.The incoming administration will have several tools to reshape these policies, especially in areas like agriculture, where Biden aimed to leverage climate-focused funding. The IRA boosted conservation programs, but Republican lawmakers have pushed to repurpose these funds for other priorities, such as energy projects in red districts or support for fossil fuel companies.

There is a growing consensus among lobbyists and industry leaders that some aspects of Biden’s agenda, such as tax credits for nuclear power and carbon capture projects, could be preserved under a Republican administration. This bipartisanship on certain energy policies suggests that parts of Biden’s efforts to address rising electricity demand and promote American manufacturing may continue, despite shifts in policy priorities.However, uncertainty over how Trump’s administration would approach these issues is creating challenges for businesses.

Companies like Pine Gate Renewables, which is planning to build the country’s largest solar and storage project in Oregon, are concerned about whether they can rely on domestic supply chains if provisions in the IRA incentivizing American-made products are undone.A group of 18 Republicans, whose districts are benefiting from IRA investments, has already warned against a full repeal of the law. With Republicans holding a slim majority in the House, Speaker Mike Johnson has suggested the party will aim for targeted cuts rather than a broad repeal of Biden’s climate and infrastructure spending.

This approach would reflect the delicate balance Republicans face in navigating their opposition to Biden’s agenda while managing the interests of constituents benefiting from the investments.As Republicans prepare to take control of the House and potentially the presidency, they are outlining their priorities for reshaping key elements of Biden's economic and energy agenda, with an emphasis on revisiting policies such as the electric vehicle (EV) tax credit and energy-related investments. Rep. Brett Guthrie of Kentucky, the incoming chair of the House Energy and Commerce Committee, noted that Republicans would assess how businesses have relied on the IRA tax credits before making changes, suggesting a careful evaluation of the impact on existing investments.

Senator John Barrasso, along with others in the party, has criticized the electric vehicle tax credit, calling it wasteful and referring to it as a "Biden car bribe." Trump’s transition team shares this stance, aiming to eliminate the EV tax credit and redirect funding for EV chargers. However, implementing these changes may be challenging, as much of the funding for chargers has already been distributed to states. Similarly, Republicans have lambasted the $42 billion broadband expansion initiative, with figures like Elon Musk and Senator Joni Ernst calling for its cancellation due to slow progress and bureaucratic delays, despite $24.7 billion being obligated by early December.

The Biden administration points to other successes, such as connecting millions of households to the internet through pandemic relief funds and benefiting U.S. telecom manufacturing. Additionally, the Energy Department's loan office, which has undergone transformation since the Solyndra scandal, has provided $74 billion in financing for clean energy projects, with a growing number of awards for projects in line with Biden’s clean energy agenda.

Despite this progress, critics, including those aligned with Trump, argue that these investments should be halted or undone, especially as some of the loans, such as the $6.6 billion loan to EV maker Rivian, are viewed as prime targets for reversal. Vivek Ramaswamy, who is set to co-lead Trump's efficiency commission with Musk, has already identified these types of agreements as a top priority to undo upon taking office.

As the future of clean energy and economic policies hangs in the balance with the incoming Trump administration, many executives and analysts in the clean energy sector remain cautiously optimistic that low-carbon technologies will continue to grow. While some foresee challenges due to shifts in regulations and policies, others, like Joe Mastrangelo, CEO of Eos Energy Enterprises, believe that the growing demand for energy, especially from industries like artificial intelligence and data centers, will continue to drive the sector forward. Mastrangelo also noted that the Republicans may preserve domestic energy manufacturing tax credits and push for easing permitting bottlenecks, which could benefit the energy industry.

However, the possibility of a return to deregulation under Trump raises concerns for climate-focused startups, as new pollution controls and regulations often serve as incentives for innovation and business development. Kevin Dutt, interim CEO of Greentown Labs, expressed concern that a rollback of these regulations would make clean energy startups less attractive to investors and potential acquirers, thereby slowing down progress in the sector.

In response to the political uncertainty, some companies are rushing to finalize contracts and secure funding from the Biden administration before the change in leadership. For instance, chipmakers are accelerating negotiations with the Commerce Department to lock in awards ahead of the new administration.Despite the stark political divide, there is a growing recognition that both Biden and Trump have reshaped the U.S. approach to manufacturing and economic policy, shifting away from global free trade towards an "America First" mentality focused on domestic industry and jobs.

Arjun Murti, a former energy analyst, pointed out that both administrations share the vision of reshoring manufacturing and investing in low-carbon technologies, even if the motivations and strategies differ. This bipartisan shift toward bolstering domestic manufacturing could emerge as a significant legacy, regardless of the political leadership in power.